Keep Hold Nahar Spinning Mills Ltd touch 100+....

What is Inflation?
Inflation, is an economic concept. What the cause of inflation is, is not important to us from the point of view of this article. What is important to us is the effect of inflation! The effect of inflation is the prices of everything going up over the years.
A movie ticket was for a few paise in my dad’s time. Now it is worth Rs.50. My dads first salary for the month was Rs.400 and over he years it has now become Rs.75,000. This is what inflation is, the price of everything goes up. Because the price goes up, the salaries go up.

If you really thing about it, inflation makes the worth of money reduce. What you could buy in my dad’s time for Rs.10, now a days you will not be able to buy for Rs.400 also. The worth of money has reduced! If this is still not clear consider this, when my father was a kid, he used to get 50paise pocket money. He used to use this money to go and watch a movie (At that time you could watch a movie for 50paise!)

Now, just for the sake of understanding assume that my dad decided in his childhood to save 50paise thinking, that one day when he becomes big, he will go for a movie. Many years pass. The year now is 2006. My dad goes to the theater and asks for a ticket. He offers the ticket-booth-guy at the theater 50paise and asks for a ticket. The ticket booth guy says, “I am sorry sir, the ticket is worth Rs.50. You will not be able to even buy a “paan” with the 50paise!!”

The moral of the story is that, the worth of the 50paise reduced dramatically. 50paise could buy a whole lot when my dad was a kid. Now, 50paise can buy nothing. This is inflation. This tells us two important things.

Firstly: Do not keep your money stagnant. If you just save money by putting it your safe it will loose value over time. If you have Rs.1000 in your safe today and you keep it there for 10years or so, it will be worth a lot less after 10 years. If you can buy something for Rs.1000 today, you will probably require Rs.1500 to buy it 10 years from now. So do not keep money locked up in your safe.

Always invest money.
If you can’t think where to invest your money, then put it in a bank. Let it grow by gaining interest. But whatever you do, do not just lock your money up in your safe and keep it stagnant. If you do this, you will be loosing money without even knowing it. The more money you keep stagnant the more money you will be loosing.

Second things: When investing, you have to make sure that the rate of return on your investment is higher than the rate of inflation.

What is the rate of inflation?
As we said earlier, the prices of everything goes up over time and this phenomenon is called inflation. The question is: By how much do the prices go up? At what rate do the prices do up?

The rate at which the prices of everything go up is called the "rate of inflation". For example, if the price of something is Rs.100 this year and next year the price becomes approximately Rs.104 then the rate of inflation is 4%. If the price of something is Rs.80 then after a year with a rate of inflation of 4% the price go up to (80 x 1.04) = 83.2

So, when you make an investment, make sure that your rate of return on the investment is higher than the rate of inflation in your country. In our county India, for the year 2005-2006 the rate of inflation was 4% (Which is really low and amazing!). This rate keeps changing every year. The finance minister generally gives the official statement on the inflation rate of the country for a particular year.

What is the rate of return?
The rate of return is how much you make on an investment. Suppose you invest Rs.100 in the market and over a year, you make Rs.120, then you rate of return is 20%.

If you invest Rs.100 in the market today and you make money at a 3% "rate of return" in one year you will have Rs.103. But now, since the rate of inflation is at 4%, an item costing Rs.100 today will cost Rs.104 a year from now. So what you can buy with today’s Rs.100, you will only be able to buy with Rs.104 a year from now.

But the Rs.100 that you invested has grown only at a 3% rate of return and so it is worth Rs.103. In effect, you are loosing money!

So in conclusion, the rate of return on your investments, have to be higher than the rate of inflation.

From the above paragraphs you can note how silently, inflation eats into your money. You would not even know about it an your money would sit loosing value for no fault of yours. But inflation is not the only thing you should be considering, there are other things too that eat into you money. The first thing is “brokerage” and the second thing is “taxation”.

Today Nifty Outlook
Today, Nifty may face resistance near 3455, 3475, 3490, 3515, 3535
take support near 3400, 3380, 3370, 3340, 3320.
Today as long as Nifty remains above 3400-3390 on any decline, it may bounce back and move in upward direction.
Nifty moves above and stays above 3450, It will try to touch further higher levels.

Stock Funda:

SBI :
Buy this stock at lower levels near 1255, 1250 on evidence
Bounce back for targets of 1275, 1285, 1305.
Keep STOP LOSS AT 1240.

RELIANCE :
Buy this stock at lower levels near 1745, 1740
Bounce back for targets of 1760, 1785, 1805.
Keep STOP LOSS AT 1730.

1. INFOSYS :
Buy this stock at lower levels near 1370, 1365
support and bounce back for targets of 1380, 1395, 1405.
Keep STOP LOSS AT 1355.


2. RELIANCE :
Sell at higher levels if it fails to cross 1725, 1735
Down side targets of 1710, 1700, 1690.
Keep STOP LOSS AT 1745.

RELIANCE : Sell this stock at higher levels 1730, 1735
Down side targets of 1700, 1690, 1670. Keep STOP LOSS AT 1745.

INFOSYS : Sell this stock at higher 1370, 1375
Down side targets of 1355, 1330, 1325. Keep STOP LOSS AT 1385.